Sunday, December 28, 2008

Communism died naturally, but Capitalism overdosed

The rise of Capitalism in the West during the last few decades had the elements of unbridled borrowing, lending and buying to stimulate economic growth. Which worked when many countries were rebuilding after several wars and end of colonolialism.
But the real underpinning of Capitalism should have been creating wealth by production, savings and meaningful investment in things that benefit the humankind.
The avarice that was practiced to an excess in the last few years when financial assets assumed more significance than real assets has brought Capitalism to its knees.
Regulation or lack of it was one of the contributing factors, the main factor being the unseemly pursuit of personal wealth by greedy and fraudulent means, led by the financiers of USA and UK and aided by the Governments either directly or silently. Manufacturing and infrastructure development was pushed aside. Now the World is paying the price and will pay it for a few more years.
Governments now should focus their energies on helping citizens to work, produce and save for a decent living. A moral sea change is required.
Will America under Obama lead the way or will it need a new leader with a new Phlosophy, may be from the East?

Thursday, December 18, 2008

USA-the Bailout Nation

After the Banks it is now the turn of the Car companies to seek the bailout funds being handed out in USA. But before handing out any money to the Car companies the US government should force the 3 automakers to merge into one single company, give them funds to continue in business, but dismiss the entire top management and give out a management contract to Toyota or some such innovative foreign auto company with the mandate to revamp the production line to start making sensible, fuel-efficient cars which the customers can buy at affordable prices and run with less damage to their purse and environment.

GM, Ford and Chrysler should go out as brand names because those brands are dead. The government should get majority stake for the investment and the auto-workers should get shares as part of the compensation for their promise to work for less wages in future. They will then have a stake in the success of the venture.

This type of nationalisation may be better than throwing good moeny at bad manufacturing and management practices and losing, just to keep jobs going. That will only postpone the inevitable.

Sunday, December 07, 2008

Random thoughts-Bush, Obama, Clinton and Mumbai

George Bush has recently said that he was unprepared for War. In fact he was unprepared for anything, most of all 'being President of USA'. He came in to the Presidency by fraud, courtesy of Supreme Court which awarded the Presidency to him. His invasion of Iraq resulted in the death of more American citizens in the War on Terror than was killed on 9/11. His obsession with Iraq and his alliance with Dick Cheney and Big Business (which are the only winners of the Iaq war) diverted his attention from the domestic scene in USA. He took his eyes off the economic ball, which has resulted in another catastrophe in the financial markets, the financial costs of which will be no less than the Iraq war and will play out for more years to come. He screwed up the USA , Iraq and the World.The only positive to his long bad reign is that he made Americans cry out for change in record numbers and so desperate that they were even ready to elect an African-American as President, which might not have happened otherwise.

However Obama's selections for his Team, especially Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State is not the 'Change' the Americans voted for. The same old, same old.... Watch the Money Bags of Democrat Party make hay while the sun shines under the Obama administration. The campaign contributors to the party have to be paid back in the course of time and it will start happening soon after January the 20th.

It seems like everyone is expecting Obama to save America and Hillary Clinton to save the World. Remember both are equally inexperienced in their areas and both are going to be more reactive than pro-active, in view of the domestic economic/financial crisis in the USA and the multiple flash points in the world. USA's reputation as a Leader in the Financial and Political arenas has diminished considerably in the last few years. Obama is not proving to be the 'take-charge' President everyone expects him to be. His selections for his Economic and Foreign Policy Teams in the last few weeks have shown that he would be more of a 'give-charge to others' President. He and his Team may be relying on more of the same old with the Democratic public-spending slant. The outside events will shape their actions rather than the other way around. Don't waste your breath expecting any miracle.


The carnage in Mumbai has been discovered to be the act of foreign terrorists or locals recruited by foreign terrrorist organisations, may be linked to the struggle in Kashmir. The sophisticated arms and ammunitions used, for example, machine guns, grenades etc indicate that funding and weapons have come from outside India. India has many faceless enemies and it is too big a place to defend effectively 24/7. This probably is the price many large democracies will be paying more often in the future. As it becomes increasingly difficult to attack America, the terrorists will be looking for other targets elsewhere. Constant vigilance and better policing and intelligence-sharing may be able to stop some of the attacks. The downturn in the world economy may create more frustrations and lead more prople to cross-over to the dark side. It would be nice if arms production and distribution is curtailed with more concerted effort by the major world players. Insha-Allah, the innocents will be spared that way.

As long as the Israeli-Palestine and the Kashmiri problems are not solved the flash-points in West and South Asia would be simmering, waiting for a spark to explode anytime. May be statehood for Palestine and Kashmir is the only way out. It would take guts for Israel and India to cut off and set free Palestine and Kashmir, but hanging on to them may rip out their guts slowly, who knows ?

Update on Bush(14/01/09)
I think George Bush's legacy would have been correctly highlighted if he had named the aircraft-carrier 'USS Mission Accomplished' instead of 'USS George H W Bush'. That would shine the spotlight on the lies and falsehoold that pervaded the Bush Presidency for the last 8 years, which incidentally he won in 2000 by fraud and with the support of US Supreme Court. But what is likely to happen is may be Jenna or Barbara Bush will become President one day and name another aircraft-carrier after her father George W Bush. Anything can happen in America with the Oil and Business lobbies active.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Two Elections that have brought Change

The voters in USA and and New Zealand have both responded to the calls for change and have voted new Governments into office. It is nice to see that the Americans have crossed the racial divide and it is great that Barack Obama has been able to appeal to all Americans with his policies and pronouncements.

Obama owes much of his victory to George Bush who by his mis-rule and incalculable damage to America and the world, created a stage in USA where practically every one was crying for Change and an end to the Republicans at the control. That is Bush's legacy as President for 8 years.

Now that he is President, Obama will have much to deliver to his supporters in USA and in the World. He has to start acting quickly so his programmes can be started when the Nation's goodwill is with him, before they all wake up to the realities of the Executive, Legislative and Judicial wrangling that is bound to slow down things. He has to clean up the nation's finances and tell the bad news to the American people about the long and hard times ahead and how the recovery is going to be a gradual process with no miracles happening soon. Much Hope is riding on the Change Obama has promised.

Now how he delivers that is in his own hands. Best of luck to Obama.

In New Zealand, Helen Clark has been dethroned after nine years in the Government and John Key has brought the National Pary back to Office.

But I worry about how much John Key will depend on Bill English and how he will be influenced by the old guards of National Party led by English, who I consider as the Winston Peters of the National Party.

Key had adopted many Labour policies to make National seem like Labour Lite to get the votes. He should not become only the Front Man for the National Oldies and be controlled by them. The NZ public got bored with Helen Clark and the vote is as much against her personality as against Labour's long reign. If she had handed over the leadership of the party to Goff or Cunliffe six months ago and allowed them to lead the campaign the results could have been different or closer.

John Key should not waste this opportunity and slip back in his promises or actions to make his Government work for all of NZ, instead of only the rich and business class. The dynamics have changed all over the world and there is no clear Left or Right anymore. All countries are affected by the Economic turmoil and Financial Crises and it requires a steady and balanced hand and clear vision for facing the difficult times.

Hope Key delivers as much here in New Zealandc as Obama is expected to deliver in the USA.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Economic Topsy-turvy - Chinese Curse

Is it not ironical that a few years back the world saw Russia privatizing its state-owned enterprises and activating its stock market thus increasing prosperity for atleast some Russians and now we see the Western World on a nationlising spree, coming to the aid of its' ailing banks and stock markets to preserve the wealth of few Capitalists.

Who will have the last laugh or will it only be crying for all concerned for the foreseeable future, both in the East and West ?

Asia which includes China, India and the Arab countries may be able to save the world with their enterprise, savings habits and oil wealth. But will they be given the chance or will they be hijacked by the corrupt capitalists of the Western World again ?

Also it is really sad that now all the renowned International Banks want everything guaranteed by governments, viz their lendings, their borrowings by way of deposits from Public, inter-bank borrowings and much everything else.

It seems Risk management has gone out of the window as far as Banks are concerned after they have played fast and loose in the last few years. Why should they then be rewarded with fees and interest and profits ?. No risk, no reward.

It appears that all banks have to be nationalised by their respective Governments and only Sovereign Risk will have to be assessed for lending for any purpose. What a come down for Banks. Thanks to USA's leading financial brains for making a mockery of all Banks.

Consider this.

Paulson as chief of Goldman Sachs pushed Congress to liberalise rules for Investment Banks so they can take on higher leverage to speculate and make more money betting on worthless loans and paper securities. His firm sold these to other Banks, etc. Then he becomes Treasury Secretay and sees the mess explode the financial markets. He allows Bear Stearns and Merryl Lynch to be taken over by bigger banks, lets Leehman collapse thus killing the opposition and that leaves Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley standing. They turn themselves into Banks. Meanwhile Paulson drums up the Bailout Plan of $700 billion to buy the toxic mortgages and another $250 billion to recapitalise Banks. Guess who benefits, his old firm Goldman Sachs. The Bailout is going to be administered by his ex-aide at Sachs, Neel Kashkari who is now the Bailout Czar. Shows how one of the Villains of the Crisis has morphed into the Hero of the Bailout.

God save USA.

To paraphrase a Chinese curse 'we are living in interesting times'"

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

USA-Crisis in the Financial markets

There is a pattern here.
Every few years USA has to get into a war, using its arms and ammunitions and weapons and then rebuild/buy again. It used to be called the Military-Industrial complex. Now one has to add the Finance-Business to that complex.
Because now every few years the finance guys rip off the economy and common citizen by blowing and bursting bubbles (S and L Crisis, Junk Bond Crisis, Dotcom Crisis, Sub-Prime/CDO Crisis etc) which cost the tax-payer ultimately in rescue and recovery and more taxes. There are many Industry/Business/Military/Finance executives and Politicians in USA who benefit by this cycle with rich pickings.
The average Joe is expected to bail out the economy and nation repeatedly by assuming more tax burden, boosting consumption by taking on more debt .Meanwhile the USA goes deeper and deeper into debt. USA should have been declared 'Insolvent and Bankrupt' years back and other nations should have stopped investing there.
Now the whole world is suffering and will continue to suffer yet again.
USA seems to have ‘lost the plot’ and in the process ‘lost its cash/wealth too’.

I also think a good percentage of the $700 billion will be siphoned off into the pockets of vested interests and individuals who will be tasked with designing and implementing the bailout being discussed.
It is ironical that the Goldman Sach's former chief Paulson is leading the bailout which helps firms like Goldman more than the average Joe.
And Warren Buffet after investing in Goldman is pushing for the bailout. A clear signal that the Wall street executives and the big money men are all interested in using Government funds for their own welfare and profit.
The money should not be used to bail out banks and firms which bet on paper securities not backed by any assets. They should be left to die on their own swords.
If the US government has $700 billion to spend it should be used to directly help the homeowners struggling to repay their mortgages, by way of loan write-downs, interest rate reductions, tax credits etc. Congress should not buckle and should stand firm on not helping the corrupt and inefficient finance firms/executives.
And finally the mere fact that George Bush is supporting and rooting for the bailout should give pause to the scheme. He has a lousy track record. He is leaving a costly legacy by way of Iraq War to the Americans. He should not be given another chance in the last stage of his Presidency to screw up further the lives and finances of Americans for many years to come.

Saturday, September 06, 2008

US Presidential Election - Going to the Wire

Obama is being compared to John F Kennedy and now McCain has introduced his own Kennedy factor, this time 'Jacquie Kennedy' in the form of Sarah Palin. Let us see which Kennedy pulls in more votes to win the Presidency.

Obama may create history by becoming the first African-American to become President. John McCain may also create history by giving Sarah Palin the chance to become the first woman to become President, if as they say he is too old and may die while in office.

Sarah Palin has proved by her fiery speech that she has what it takes to shine in the 'centre stage' of the campaign. Joe Biden is a poor comparison to her charisma. And her family 'story and troubles' may get her more sympathy votes from women and mothers. She is appearing to be "All American' to Obama's 'Elite' personality.

Obama talks of change but went for Biden as running mate which is not exactly change. And he is still not very specific in his policies and what his administration will do and when.

McCain has proved he is willing to do 'change' by picking Palin as running mate. And he has shown that he is not afraid to take the risk of his running mate outshining him. Who knows he may redefine "Vice-Presidency' as well if he becomes President.

The news media seem to be against McCain-Palin. Obama does not seem to be as independent of his party as John McCain is of his.

Palin is the only one with a little adminisrative/executive experience, the other major players have nothing.

The choices are pretty difficult for the American voters and till the election they may be changing their views on daily basis.

But I think it will all come down to that moment in the voting booth when Americans will decide to what extent they are ready to create history and I have a feeling they won’t with Obama.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Let the Olympic Torch light up the Dark Continent

Reflecting on my earlier blogpost about the Olympic Games, I have thought up an alternative vision for the Olympics for the future.

Instead of having the Games at different cities every 4 years and spending huge amounts of money building up facilities with the attendant dislocation, scrutiny of host country’s policies and politics and creating publicity disasters, why not select a city in a poor African Country and build permanent facilities there so the Olympic Games can be held there every four years.

The construction of the facilities can be sponsored by the Multi-National Corporations and Sports Equipment Manufacturers who benefit more by the holding of the Games. Or the rich Arab Nations who are making more money than they can spend in the current oil price boom can chip in. Of course they will get the Naming rights and Advertisement Preferance for their money.

This would focus a big development effort on a poor African Country and will symbolically shine the Olympic Light on the Dark Continent. Imagine the benefit of development and construction and jobs and economic growth that could accrue to Africa. The World Community can thus put their purse in place of their pronouncements towards the development of Africa. The facilities could be held in Trust for the World by the United Nations.

The facilities built could be maintained properly and the maintenance cost could be shared by the News and Broadcast Media organizations which are the other beneficiaries of the Olympic Games.

The Games can be held in this venue every 4 years and in between the facilities could be rented out for other events. They could also be used for training budding African athletes and sports persons.

The regular holding of Games would bring funds into Africa and would be of immense benefit to the development there.

This could also remove all politics and commercialism from the Olympic Games in future and the Games could go back to their original intended goals of promoting friendship among the Nations of the World and sports excellence in different fields.

Any takers?

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Olympic Games – They are not about Sports anymore

On the eve of the opening of Olympic Games in Beijing, George Bush has come out with scathing remarks about the human rights record of China. Was he not aware of this record for the last few years when China was getting ready to host the games? Why the sudden rush to condemn a Nation with which the USA has trade, economic and political relations and from which the USA is getting billions to shore up its troubled economy.

What is this sudden Enlightenment about?

It is about playing politics. Bush is taking the opportunity presented by the spotlight on China to say a few condemning words to shore up his image in his own country.

The Olympic Games themselves have become in the last few years more political and commercial. The host nation treats it as a chance to showcase itself and its potential for investment and trade. It builds facilities in a short time by borrowing and by dislocating people and industries to receive short-term infusion of funds with hopes of long term commercial benefits. The facilities are disused and left to collapse or pulled down later or sold.

The host nation runs the risk of the media and political spotlight which will expose its undesirable features and policies.

The sponsors, advertisers, the media etc are making money out of the Games.

The awarding of the Games itself has been shrouded in scandal as the selectors are wined and dined and corrupted with gifts and even money.

The Beijing Olympics have drawn the attention of the Western Media to the pollution and smog in Beijing and how the atmosphere there compares unfavourably to elsewhere in the developed world. Instead of appreciating the efforts taken, albeight for the short duration of the Games, by China to clean up the atmosphere, the reports always have a negative slant. Was the world not aware of what the climate and atmosphere would be in Beijing in August when the Games were awarded? What is the point of berating China?

If pollution is a relevant topic in the Games, are not the USA, UK and other western countries to be blamed more for the irresponsible use of natural resources and increasing
Global Warming and bringing the Earth to its present state now?

And if human rights is to be the focus, is not the USA and George Bush responsible for invading Iraq under false pretences resulting in the killing of thousands of Iraqis and causing indescribable damage to that nations and its people? USA is on the same floor as China in this regard, witness the Gitmo and Abu Graib.

The Olympic Games have ceased to be about promoting Sports and athletic competition and about fostering friendship among people as was intended by the Greeks centuries back and when the Games were revived later.

They have become more about making money, showcasing and the downside is inviting criticism and condemnation.

I am looking forward to the treatment London will get during the next 4 years in the run-up to the 2012 Games.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Israel-Much Too Promised Land

In 60 years Israel has become 'too much Promised Land' and Palestine has become the 'Forgotten Land'.

There was a necessitiy for Israel to be established in 1948 but in the last 60 years, Israel itself has also created a necessity for Palestine to be established. It will happen eventually. Israel would do well to enable that process and earn the goodwill of Palestinians who are going to be with the Jews forever.

The sooner they realise that Palestinians are their 'Brothers' (Like Issac and Ishmael were) the better for the development of the Region.
Just look at the similarities in the Jewish and Arab names.

David-Dawood
Solomon-Sulaiman
Abraham-Ibrahim
Joseph-Yusuf
Jacob-Yakoub
Mariam-Miriam
and much more may be

The Bible and the Koran both acknowledge and recognise that Jews and Arabs are brothers, though the Arab identity was established much later than the Jewish identity. So in a way the Jews are the elder brothers to the Arabs and have a duty to take care of the younger ones.
There is no harm in their taking the first step to solve the Israeli-Arab issue once for all.
'Cede some land and extend proper respect and recognition' and the whole region can go forward to living in Peace and realising the 'Promise' of prosperity for both Tribes.

The georgraphy of a Palestine State is a matter of compromise and can be solved by the UN just like that body helped create Israel. The time has come to literally 'bury the hatchet' and join hands.

Israel has to cut its apron strings to USA and learn to live independently in Peace with the Arabs. As the American Political and Economical scenes change, there won't be any guarantee of continued support for Israel at the present level. The rise of the wealth of the Arab Oil producers show that the Region has a strong base to develop in the near future and branch out into other sectors of economic development. When the Arabs get together (which may be soon) then it is only a matter of time before they can pressure the Western World to dilute the support to Israel. The United Nations will have to evolve and recognise the rising powers of China, India, Brazil, South Africa etc and the political climate is bound to change in favour of Arabs.

Then there would be another UN conference to establish Palestine. Israel should expedite this process.

Shalom-Salaam

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Is Obama going to play his trump card-Hillary as Vice President?

Now that Barack Obama has almost won the Democratic Nomination (the remaining primaries are sure to go his way and the Super Delegates are swaying his way already), I have a sneaking suspicion that he will cement his chances of winning the Presidency by offering Hillary Clinton the VP ticket. Both of them have become much nicer to each other during the end-run and both are united in their resolve to snatch the Presidency from the Republicans.

That would be a win-win for Obama, Clinton and the Democrats.

Obama would immediately get the support of Hillary's constituency of White middle-class, women and some cross-over democrats who might otherwise vote for McCain. Which would give him an iron-clad lock on mainstream Americans of all ethnic and racial types. With his huge popularity among Blacks this would be the tipping point for him to go within a striking distance of winning the Presidency in November.

Hillary for her part will still keep alive her dream of becoming President, especially if Obama stumbles in the Office during his first tenure (then she can be the sure bet for the 2012 election) or if Obama were to have a mis-hap while in the office just like JFK. Hillary as VP would be able to influence Obama towards her issues and may also make enough money (like Dick Cheney) to recover her own investments in her campaign. And she can't refuse after promsing that she would do all she could to see a Democrat elected as President. She would be in the envious position of having advised 2 Presidents from close quarters.

The Democrats would have a better chance of beating McCain with the Obama-Clinton slate than with Obama-Someone else slate. If they blow the chance this year (after the disastrous Bush Presidency the Nation is crying out for change) then it is difficult to get such an ideal situation/opportunity to remove the Republican Incumbent. The Super Delegates then will not have to agonise over their decision of whether to support Obama or Hillary.

It would be a nice touch of cleverness for Obama. Having trumped Hillary in the Primaries - then to use her as his Trump Card for winning the Game.

And think of the History they would make and start- A Black and A Woman in the Presidential Team.

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Protest againts Beijing Olympics-It is simply not Cricket

Now that the Beijing Olympics is almost upon us the protests have started against the same. First Tibet and now the protest at Olympic Torch Rally. It is really funny that for the last 4 years nobody thought of raising the issue of Tibet and suddenly now they all want to bring the spotlight on China.
Granted China's human rights record is not all that great, but I wonder whether the protests should really interfere with the holding of Olympics.
If bad human rights is the only criteria, then protests should now start against holding the 2012 Olympics in London, because Tony Blair and his British Government lent blind support to the invasion of Iraq on false and misleading grounds which has resulted in mass killing of Iraqi civilians which is continuing even now. Or how about stopping USA from holding any Olympic Games, given its role in invading many countries in the past and its illegal occupation of Iraq.
Compared to that China atleast is improving its record gradually after its integration with the Global Economy and its economic development in the last few decades. Millions of Chinese have lifted their standard of living and the freedoms are increasing too. The World should applaud the progress being made and should encourage the same, not by protesting against or boycotting the Olympics but by more contact and engagement with China. New Zealand has gone a great step ahead by signing the Free Trade Agreement with China. Constructive Engagement will make life easy for the Chinese Civilians in the years ahead.
And who knows China may review its role in Tibet and grant more autonomy, freedom etc. And even get out of Tibet. But the world cannot expect this to happen soon just as the World is not expecting the USA to end its occupation of Iraq soon.
The point is, no country has a perfect record on Human Rights and almost in all Nations, at some point or other including the present, human rights of some sections of the populace is being violated to some degree. It is not possible to find an ideal venue to hold the Olympics.
Olympics is an International Event and should be used to promote integration and cross-pollination of ideas and culture in a sporty atmosphere. A valuable opportunity to engage China will be lost if protests and threats of boycott continue.
Olympics is not like Cricket which is played by a few nations only. For example, there was effective pressure on South Africa in the past by excluding it from International Cricket Events to apply pressure on it to relax apartheid. But it is ridiculous to organise a protest or boycott of Olympics because the spirit of Olympics is different and far more Noble.

USA- Random thoughts

Cost of War in Iraq
One can thank George Bush and Tony Blair for prosecuting an unjust war in Iraq and in the process running into ground the American and Gloabal Economy. The cost of war to the Amricans and the British is bound to go up and up as long as the occupation of Iraq and the unwinnable war in Afganisthan continue. The dollor is seeking new lows daily, oil prices are going up and the American Banks and Companies may soon be owned by Sovereign Funds from the Middle East and other Oil Producing Countires.
But the real tragedy is the countless lives lost in Iraq and the disasters visited on the citizens and families there. It is nightmarish to think how the survivors will pick up the pieces and rebuild their lives and when can they start to do so. American soldiers and their families are another aspect of this tragic misadventure by Bush and Blair. It is pathetic that America cannot find enough money or resources to treat the wounded and traumatised soldiers coming back from the battlefield.
The mighty America has fallen a lot dragging the British along in a massive self-inflicted catastrophe.And giving Democracy a bad name in the process. I can hear the Russians laughing all the way to the Bank

Election 2008

The US Presidential race will really get interesting if McCain picks a Woman or Black as his running mate. Then he is sure to win. Clinton and Obama are splitting the Democrats and whoever is nominated will find it verydifficult to fight against a McCain slate with a Woman or Black as a running mate. May be he can go one better and select Condi Rice and thus appeal both to the Blacks and Women.

But I am afraid that McCain will prove to be 'Bush Lite' in office and will continue the policies of the present Republican Administration without much change and with little dilution. He has already stated that th USA has to be in Iraq for decades more. He is not having a great agenda on the economy either. He has confessed to his lack of understanding of financial markets. So he will be another laid-back President enjoying the privileges of Office and letting the country slide further.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Hillary Clinton Plumbing the Depths

Hillary Clinton seems to have become very desperate and is willing to do anything to become the President of USA.

Her invitation to Barack Obama to be her Vice-Prsident is one such low. Besides being desperate, it is also very stupid. Why would Obama who is leading her in the Primaries accept a second position? And if as she has repeatedly said that Obama is not Presidential material on a/c of his inexperience, how can she ask him to be Vice President which gives him a chance to become President should something happen to Hillary ? Does not make sense at all.

In fact viewed against Hillary's record, all her wrong experience seems to be of no good use to America. I am reminded of a quote about experience-'My father always said he had 40 years of experience but what he really had was one year of experience repeated 39 times'.

Hillary has also stated that a Republican would be a better President than Obama.
Is she hoping to scare the Democratic voters ?

It appears that the Democrats have lost a golden chance to reover the Presidency. After the disastrous Bush Regime, the Democrats had a very good chance as the country is crying out for change to put things right ASAP. But all the Democrats could come up with was Hillary who is hated as much as George Bush and Barack Obama who may not appeal to many (let us be frank here) because of his colour, background and lack of specifics.

I am afraid if Obama is nominated for the Democrats then between the convention and the Election date many mainstream Americans may have second thoughts about having an African-American as President and could use his lack of experience as an excuse to vote Republican.

So it looks like John McCain can trounce either Obama or Hillary in the election and help the Republicans retain the Presidency. He has all the experience, war hero appeal, good -looking wife and he could appeal to disaffected Democrats as well.

But what would really make the race interesting is if McCain picks a woman or black as his running mate. Then he is sure to win.

Clinton and Obama are splitting the Democrats and whoever is nominated will find it very difficult to fight against a McCain slate with a woman or black as a running mate.

May be McCain can go one better and select Condi Rice as his Vice-President and thus appeal both to the blacks and women.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Farm Loan Waiver in India-Bank Managers are happy

I am sure thousands of Bank Managers in India are saying thanks to the Finance Minister for announcing loan waiver to small and marginal farmers amounting to $15 billion.

These loans have caused much headache and footwork for the Bank Mangers tasked with recovering them. The Indian banking and legal system being what they are, these loans had to be meticulously documented,and the loan documents kept alive by regular acknowledgements from the borrowers. The loan servicing was a big job, with regular visits and writing of reports. Many of the loans had to be first classified as difficult then doubtful and annually audited with voluminous reports. Then the individual banks had to claim reimbursements for these doubtful loans from another Government Organisation. The carrying cost of these small loans was much more than the original loan amount and the process took a few years.

Now with a single step, the Finance Minister has enabled the Banks to remove these loans from the Banks' books and give immense relief to the Bank Managers.

There are similar loans to other small sectors like small businesses which may also have to get similar relief in future.

In fact there was a joke doing the rounds when such loans were given under political pressure in Loan Melas: 'why not disburse the loans directly by debiting the Profit and Loss A/c, saving trouble all around and also get tax relief'.

It is great to see that the Finance Ministry has realised this atleast now and has taken the first step.

Also, it is only just that the economic prosperity that many sectors in India are experiencing in the last few years be shared with the small and marginal farmers, who are not able to otherwise participate in the boom, by leaving their farms and joining call centres.

The Congress Party came back to Power because of the disaffection of marginalised populace who could not benefit immediately from the booming economy, so it is right that the Party gives something back to its consitituents.

In the process the Banking sector gets a much needed clean-up and the Bank Managers have been made happy.

Win-Win for all concerned.
Bravo, Mr Chidambaram.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Anti-Human Predictive Tests for Children

I am so appalled by a proposal being discussed in New Zealand for testing children as young as 3 years tor future predictive behaviour and so identify future criminals, etc. So smacking of George Orwell's 1984 and Hitler's experiments. The next step could be Eugenics and the State mandating who can mate with whom and who can procreate.

The link to the story is
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/466/story.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10488674

The fallacy can be exposed just by asking - what about children who grow up to be harmful politicians, military dictators, autocrats, dishonest businesspersons, etc. For example think of George Bush, Pervez Musharaff, Saddam Hussein, Osama Bin Laden, Jerome Kerviel, Conrad Black, Enron Chief and similar persons who have done more damage to the humankind than a small time criminal or violent person who might cost about $25000 to the society.

The point is anybody can go wrong in different ways and every human has the potential to do immense good or immense harm to others. There can't be any single or universal means to test for what a person will grow up to be and how circumstances will shape that person.

It is really stupid and anti-human to conduct a single or series of tests to predict the future of a child.

Life or Nature is not that simple.

Even if the tests are somewhat okay and identify some children, what is the state going to do? Can they guarantee a programme that will turn that child around and make sure he or she grows into an acceptable person? What if there is change of government and lack of funding for such purposes? The children so identified may be just left stranded. What about the feelings and rights of the parents?

It is all so stupid to even think that the State or some Professor who has done some sort of research has all the answers.

Evolution is a dynamic thing and the measures that are being considered may all have more damaging unforeseen consequences for the society to pay later.

Instead more time and fundiing could be devoted to ensure a stable and happy atmosphere in as many homes as possible with employment, schooling, housing and of course stricter law enforcement and may be a more rigorous sentencing and rehabilitation for criminals.

Just remember, modern Australia was founded by convicts and if they had been screened earlier and put under some Government Programme, Australia would not be there as it is today.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Cricket-Monkey play between Indians and the Aussies

The Aussies have been the worst sledgers in recent cricket matches and now they seem to have got some back. And they don't like it.
The match was played in a very bad atmosphere continuing on from the acrimony generated during the Aussie's recent tour of India.
Symonds has been on the receiving end for a while and may be the Aussie authorities wanted to make an example of Harbhajan and used the match referee.
But what was the clinching proof of Harbhajan's guilt?It would be interesting to find that out.
If the punishment has been decided only on the words of Symonds, then it is not enough proof of guilt.
The Indians are equally passionate about their players and they did not like the bad umpiring which probably lost them the match.
But all said and done, on the field it looks like the Aussies are the better team and one has to accept that, as evidenced by their all-round performance in batting and bowling. But fielding and catching, that is a different story.
And finally the message to the Players should be-'Quit the Monkey-play and Please play Cricket'


Update on 19/01/2008

Looks like they played cricket properly at Perth.

Congrats to India on the win.
They showed the Aussies, didn't they.
Well done boys.

However I am surprised that the Aussies did not win this one, though history was against them. Seems no team had gone on to get more that 400 in the last innings to win a test in a long time.
But if there was any team that could have done it, in my view, it would have to the the Old Pakistani Team lead by Javed Miandad and the present Aussie Team led by Ricky Ponting. I hope they get the challenge again soon to show that World what they are capable of. Best of Luck.