Iraq-The beginning of the End Game for USA

I think the end game for US and UK in Iraq has already begun.

Tony Blair is openly talking about a time table to pullout. Bush is perhaps waiting for the James Baker Commission to give similar recommendations. Then he can seize the opportunity and quote Public Opinion as a reason to pullout. He will quickly forget his current blusters about 'Getting the job done and not running away, et al'. The ground situaion in Iraq is deteriorating very fast and Bush and Blair may not have the stomach to commit more troops. Which is good, because more troops will only add fuel to the fire.

It is also good that Iraqi and Iranian leaders are talking. But they need to rope in Saudi Arabia as well. I believe it would be a top level rapproachment between Sunnis and Shiites that will send the message to the people that sectarian fighting will bring the whole region down. Bush and Blair would do well to influence the King of Saudi Arabia to take the lead for a conference of all players where a quick agreeement to end the Sunni-Shia fighting can be worked out.

This will allow a quick withdrawal of foreign forces, to be replaced by UN troops drawn from neutral countries. These troops can administer the peace in Iraq while the factions can quicly work out a new National Government, with majority representaion to Shias but equally respectful places to Sunnis and Kurds.

The offer of reconstruction aid from USA, UK and Saudi Arabia can be the carrot to have all this in place. They should commit to unlimited funds to rebuild Iraq as quickly as possible and give wide publicity to the proposal among ordinary Iraqi citizens. They then can pressure their leaders to stop fighting and start on the path to peace.

Key to Eden Park

This posting is about the latest events in Auckland during the last few days

1. John Key as National Party Leader:
After the resignation of Don Brash, the National Party has elected John Key as leader. As they say in England, 'The King is Dead, Long live the King'. John Key has Bill English as his deputy. How really English all this sounds!!!!

Brash was not brash enough and lost the post because of his wobbly stands and wobbly reputation (not very forthcoming on certain issues) and not sounding firm on others. Though he concentrated the minds of New Zealanders admirably by raising the Maori/Nationality/Resources ownership issues.

The National Party has now replaced an ex-Central Banker with an ex-Investment Banker as its leader. Let us hope the Investment Banker reads the minds of the market (public mood) properly and is agile enough to make the most of the prevailing winds. Who knows, if he brings his dealing acumen to politics (already there is a glimpse of it in how he co-opted Bill English), the National Party may go up in the ratings and the Labour may have a real fight (instead of the shadow boxing it engaged in with Don Brash) and it will be interesting times all around.

I am sure the Media must be salivating at the potential and profits in the days ahead.
Best of luck to all.

A way to fund Eden Park:
Now that the Waterfront has sunk even before it started floating (anything to do with the global warming and rising sea levels?), it is time to reflect how the Eden Park upgrade is going to be funded. As of date, the declared shortfall is about $225 million and it may go up as days go by and real work starts on the plans.

I have a suggestion. Why not make Eden Park Trust a Public Limited Company and float shares or debentures and give an opportunity to Aucklanders to subscribe to the same. This way the people who voted in the polls for Eden Park can put their money where they put their votes and also show that they are willing to take the lead for establlishing Auckland as an International World-class city. There is already the example of AECT (Vector) which is partly owned by countless Aucklanders who are benefitting every year from dividends. Aucklanders don't want a rate raise to fund Eden Park upgrade but those who can afford may take up the opportunity to buy their way into ownership of Eden Park. And may be the Eden Park Trust can throw in an incentive of preferred/free tickets to the Rugby World Cup finals to the subscribers of shares/bonds.
Will the authorities look into this ?


Waterfront development:
Thanks to Trevor Mallard, the Auckland waterfront has gripped everyone's attention now. It is a good time to think of ways to develop/improve it and the opportunity should not be lost to continue the debate and learn what Aucklanders really want for their Waterfront. It is a waste to continue using it for just storing containers and used cars.

There has to be an iconic building and a combination concert hall, events venue and museum on the waterfront. May be we can draw on the experiences of similar cities like Sydney, Bilbao etc and get ideas from Kiwis all over the world. A construction and development boom is necessary for the waterfront/CBD to be revived.

The Central Government has a big surplus, but as long as Labour is in power, nothing is going to come back to ordinary citizens. Why not use the surplus to promote economic development at the Waterfront and benefit many people?

I know these questions are easy to ask but tough to decide on. But that is why we pay the elected members top dollors and that is one of the Key Performance Areas in their work.

So I am hoping Key will raise to the occasion and and labour hard with the Visionaries in New Zealand to do his duty.

Long live English and the King.

India and China-Interesting Times for the Future

After the visit of Hu Jintao to India and signing of several agreements, the scope for each country investing in the other has increased.

Already several Indian companies have tested/tasted the water in China. Unlike the western countries which have had to face many difficulties, it is hoped that China will be more welcome to Indian Companies/investors and make things easier for them. After all, the Chinese have been practising economic liberalisation for the last few decades and must have learnt that liberalisation has to be really that with full freedom and not shackled by the chains of red-tape and protectionism.

I am waiting to see how the Indian Government and Companies will react when they hear about the plans of Chinese Companies to invest in India like the Shanghai Electric's plan to invest $ 1 billion in a plant to manufacture equipment for domestic power plants. Now that is going to be a direct competition to BHEL which is dominant in that field and which has Public and Private ownership and has been a stock market star for the last 2 years. Will it be affected by this competition or will it take this as an opportunity to introduce better technology and service and compete on efficiency and price?

What about other manufacturing sectors? Will they be able to stand the Chinese entry?And how far the Indian Government will embrace these investments or will it ever think of making an about-face when Indian Companies petition it to protect their turf.

It will be a tragedy if they do so, because India has proved that it can operate on level playing field with Western Multi-nationals and has nothing to be afraid of Chinese investments in production facilities. In fact, it will boost the manufacturing sector in India and may bring it to the level of success the IT industry has enjoyed. The beneficial effects on increasing employment and spreading the wealth to other sections of population (the semi-literte and illiterate workers) should far outweigh the loss of income/profit to Indian Companies.

Another interesting aspect is will International investors from other countries create joint ventures with Chinese companies to invest in India?

The Elephant and the Dragon have started feeling each other out.

I fervently hope it will be a Friendship of the Giants to show the world what co-operation can do to lift everyone up the ladder and not end up as a Clash of Giants, hurting everyone.

The Chinese are coming hopefully with their blessing and friendship and as one of their favourite saying goes 'May everyone live in intersting times'.

Auckland-The Stadium Debate

I wish to have my 5c worth of say in this debate.
It will be good to have a new stadium at the waterfront, provided the design is good and represents New Zealand in a special way and can be showcased as a good tourist attraction like the Sydney Opera House. This may revive the CBD and draw more conventions, games and international events to Auckand and benefit New Zealand.
The Auckland City Council and the ARC should come clean with a firm estimate and the government should underwrite cost over-runs. There should be a clear guarantee that the Auckland rate payers won't have to pay anything towards this.
The Eden Park may be converted to a school and may be leased to Auckland Grammar School to start a branch there. New students enrolling there should pay a one-time enrollment fee of say $3000 each and an annual fee of $1000 to pay for the new Waterfront stadium and its maintainence.
This way it is a win-win for everyone, Auckland Grammar gets a brand new school and the pressure on the old school goes, the property prices will go up in CBD and the scholl areas and new entrants will pay their way and the Public will get a brand new school and stadium paid for by people who can afford it.
How about it? Any takers?

Iran going nuclear-Is it such a disaster?

I think not only Iran but many more nations are thinking of developing nuclear weapons and it is very difficult to stop that. Particularly when USA is ready to be accommodative with selected countries like India with which it is entering into a deal, allowing continuation of weapons development sans inspection and control. The West has no moral standing in this, because of the weapons already possessed by USA, UK, France, etc. And Israel has been allowed secretly to have its own nuclear weapons though no one is willing to acknowledge that publicly. This seems to be the worst kept secret in the world.

And Iran is really not threatening any nation, though there is rhetoric flying about destruction of Israel. It is Saudi Arabia which seems to be worried about Iran having nuclear weapons and may be USA is supporting its ally. George Bush has lost credibility to stop nuclear proliferation and it is doubtful whether US's leadership will be effective. Look at North Korea.

It looks like the best option is to allow Iran to proceed with controls in place monitored by UN. May be the existing members of the Nuclear Club could get togther under the auspices of UN to work out ways to reduce and eliminate the stockpile already in place, so they will have the moral authority to stop any new country from developing nuclear weapons.

But the reality is that if any country wants to go nuclear and has the finances and resources availble, very little can be done to prevent it, short of invading that country, but Iraq has proved that it can't work either. A bitter pill to swallow but the world is too big and the divisions are too entrenched to be controlled by any one group.

Peace in the Middle East-It need not be a mirage.

Peace can come to Middle East when the Nations of Middle East, including Israel realise the folly of continued warfare and enmity not only between Jews and Arabs but also between different sects of Arabs. It is a pity that the Region with the most important and wealthy resource required to run the world is suffering and its people are not benefiting by the oil they are supposed to own. It really escapes understanding how they have allowed outsiders and some despotic rulers to hijack the wealth and make daily life a misery for countless natives.

It is high time the Leaders of the Nations there wake up and unite to present a common face and strength to the Western World. They are not dependent on Western countries any more. There are other nations like Russia, India, China, Japan etc which can help these nations in technological and economical development.

States like Dubai. Qatar and Bahrain have already adopted ways to deal smartly with outside world. They have realized their power and importance and have leveraged their wealth nicely to make sure Western countries deal with them on their terms which is a win-win for everyone.

When will the old powers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Syria realize this? They have a long history of civilization and should see that continued division and fighting only helps others to increase their interference and influence, much to the detriment of natives. The rulers may get some immediate benefits but their times are limited. They stand to gain much more if they put an end to the fighting amongst themselves and lead the Region to peace and prosperity.

And Israel should realize that being in the Middle East, its future is in making peace and negotiating for a safe environment for its own development. They are blinded by the support of USA, but there is no guarantee that America can stomach much more blood-spilling by its troops and the American Public is realizing the economic cost of supporting an unethical stand. So Israel should not feel that it is part of the Western World and should not depend on getting much support for its uncompromising stand on borders, etc. In case it is not willing to deal directly with Arabs, it can petition the United Nations to set up a group of neutral countries like Sweden, Switzerland, Holland, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore etc to negotiate a good deal between Arabs and Israel.

It is time to think outside the box or square as the saying goes and give up dependence on the traditional powers like USA or Europe to work out a peace plan. They have proved their inability to bring about a peaceful solution. They are not part of the solution but are really part of the problem.

The solution should come from the people of the Region, the Arabs and the Israelis themselves.

My request to the leaders of the Nations of Middle East:

Stop the fighting and think of what you are losing and what others are gaining at your cost. Your people deserve better and it is you who have to provide that.

May Allah and Yahweh give you the wisdom you need (as they sure did in the past, according to your own history)

An Ode to the Outbound Team - by the Great Boss Lady who created and nurtured the Team

This is a personal message.

Today we had the farewell for my ex-boss from my ex-team at the Bank I am working in. It was a great evening with much laughter (by me and because of me by others) and much crying (by the boss lady who was leaving the team). It was fun with good drinks and food and an evening of remembering the good work done by the Boss and the Team.

I am very proud to have been part of the Team and sharing the success. The Boss lady was a very generous person giving her time and attention to everyone and making everyone in the Team feel that she was there for him or her alone. She was keen to see the Team members grow and go out on promotion and for better prospects elsewhere. No wonder she named the division, the Outbound Team (with success unsaid). She never spared any praise and was very circumspect and diplomatic in her criticism, but her stare said more everytime. She was great fun to be with always. Very human but professional. Beauty with brains, an indomitable combination. May her tribe increase.

I am reproducing the poem she wrote and read out today. You can see why she deserves all the accolades, if she can produce a masterpiece like this about the staff she worked with.

An Ode to the Outbound Team.

April 2004, this Outbound Team started with a hiss and a roar
Everyone was nervous for this was a change
We'd be calling clients, not the other way
Afte training the team hit the phones a fortnight later, oh goodness me.
What a caler!

The customers were suspicious, a bank being pro-active?
Fear not dear customers, it is better than being reactive
After hiccups and issues, the results started coming
Not long afrer, the team was humming!

Mini fin-aps and targets and they were a big ask
Then marketing decided, that's not nearly enough
New leads were developed and tested by many
Teh work piled up, there was always plenty

That's enough about the tasks, what about the people
Surely there is some stories that can't be equalled

There's plenty of people that have come and gone
One evern swallowed a tack which went wrong
Another lady thought she was pretty hot
Until she realised there was a leaving present-NOT!

To Bank Direct they flocked, like bees to the honey
With promises of making large sums of money
Nitin, Ranjit and Ali Abbas
Now making their millions without a big fuss

Enough of those who have gone before
What about the team that is no bore
We've been called many a thing, but we reperesent the United Nations
Some of us even as loud as a Tongan Radio Station

Staff First is still ababy, only one year in the making
There is plenty of business for the taking!
Emails, calls and mini fin-aps
These ladies and gent don't take any flack.

Susanne and Andrea were there for a while
Then Stu came and pinched the one with a lovely smile
Andrea left to seek a husband and fame
Some of her clients thought that was a shame

Wee Wee balied to a more technical role
But could not bare to leave the fold
Finding a desk in the pod one block over
She could always keep an eye over her shoulder

We can't foget our founding Fathers and Mother
They are nothing like any other

Our social co-ordinator Mr Jay indeed
Used his acquaintainces to get us a cheap feed
And if hte money was tight, Mother Rameez to the rescue
With a carrot cake to add to my weight issues

Mr Satish, or should we call him our Mr One Team
Dined on Level 29 nearly bursting at the seams
And Deepak, Mr Cool, our famous Wimbledon Star
but sometimes I wonder-could he have been our own Rock Star?

There's those who heve deflected to many places around
Jeevan, Vaishali to BRU they were bound
Simon later joined them much to their glee
Now they are known as the Famous Three.

Sanjay and Mohan (which one ?), they like to laugh a lot
Sometimes I wondered if they have been smoking pot???
Roushel and Sheila, they are still a bit green
But who can blame them for wanitng to join a fabulous team?

Giselle and Richa both quiet and shy
They make the boys smile when they walk by
Mr RAvi in the corner, working away
Is happy as long as he gets through the day

Vijay took the Outboudn part of his role to heart
And challenged himself from the start
This weekend he heads to Outbound Bound
Enjoy the adventure you are about to be found

A couple of people yet to mention
Out Mr Wong who craves attention
And Brenda, our lovely lady from the shore
Decided to join the good guys (that were not a bore)

Maria and Tyler, our North Shore residents
But on special occasions, Dom Road tenants
With Maria's experience and Tyler's youth
I am sure they could tell us a few home truths

Forgive me if there is anyone I forget
But Grace was the last one that has left
To IM in harbour she was bound
I wonder how many dents her car has found

It's been a long time running, almost three yers have past,
I can honestly say that I have had a blast
We've laughed and we've cried, we've fought (and ouf course I have won)
But most importantly, we had great fun

I leave with fond memories of days been and gone
And I am sure you're glad I did'nt sing a song
Be good to each other, work hard and live well
I'm lucky to have worked with each one of you, it's been swell.

----------------------

Yes Boss, it has been really swell to have spent time as a member of this great Team.
Our hearts go with you to future successes and fun and laughter and may be some tears.
May everyone be blessed forever.

Bush and Blair-The beginning of the Great Divide?

Now Tony Blair has started talking about a regional solution to the Iraq problem and is seeking to enlist the help of Syria and Iran. But his tone is still authoritative as if it is the Middle East's problem to be solved by Iraq's neighbours.

Blair has forgotten that it was his great friend George Bush, who started the invasion with a mis-guided notion that Saddam and Al Qaeda were allies and punishing Saddam would stop Al Qaeda and with the wrong intelligence that Iraq was producing WMDs. Blair went along with Bush and put British troops in harms way. The mess that has happened since is too horrible to revisit again.

Now that George Bush has become a lame duck President with no control of the Congress and Senate, Blair has seen the writing on the wall and wants to find out a easy way to get out. But his friend across the Atlantic is still not ready to meet with Iran or go easy on the nuclear issue.How far will Blair now support Bush or will he lead a new coalition of the erstwhile non-willing to counsel Bush and get him to come to the table for a meeting with Iran.

And what about the other great power of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia. You can't have a lasting peace there without the Saudis' support and they seem to be in Bush's corner at present

It will be very interesting to see how Blair plays his cards now and whether he will ditch his friend and try to make a name for himself in the history books as the Peacemaker?

How to end the Iraq War-an update-Use Saddam to unite Iraq.

This is in continuation of my earlier positng about how to end the war in Iraq. Now another opportunity has come with the sentencing of Saddam Hussein. Saddam has already appealed to Iraqis to stop fighting. George Bush has won by having Saddam captured and letting him go on trial and convicted and sentenced. But Saddam may have his use still. He is one person the Iraqis are familiar with and if he is recruited to end the war by getting his country-men to unite under a coalition of Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, it would be a fitting retribution for his past sins. And it appears he may be willing to do so. So why not offer a long jail sentence to him and spare his life and get him to lead the revolution to join all Iraqis together. This may also stop any further escalation of violence if Saddam is executed. Till his fate is decided his presence would be a thorn in America's side and they may as well have a bargain with him to get him to do something to repair the Iraqi society.

George Bush has proved that the end justifies the means by invading Iraq unjustifiably and with out any valid reason. He can now look at the real end which is bringing peace to Iraq and get America out of a mess, and use Saddam for the same.

May be the United Nations or the new Congress/Senate dominated by the Democrats can look at this suggestion.

Will they?

The Democrat and the Dictator

So it is finally over, Saddam Hussein has been found guilty and has been sentenced to death by hanging. George Bush must see this as vindication of his decision to invade Iraq and rid it of the despot and free its people from Saddam's tyranny. Good as far as it goes.

But the manner in which this result was brought about raises a big issue. Is USA or its President qualified enough to decide who is a dictator to be dethroned and which country deserves freedom from its ruler and whether USA has the sole authority to invade that country with false pretenses of Weapons of Mass Destruction and cause irrepairable damage to its people and assets and resources?

The real reason USA invaded Iraq may be to ensure its interests in a key area of the world with huge oil rserves are safeguarded and to ensure it has control over a vital resource required to run daily life in USA and drive up the profits of the Big Oil Companies. Did Bush take the opposition in Iraq to Saddam as an opportunity and trump up false accusations of WMD to invade Iraq? He also might have used the 9/11 attack by Al Qaeda and concocted an imaginary link between Saddam and Al Qaeda to buttress his arguments to invade Iraq.

And the consequences of this mis-guided, mis-informed and mis-managed invasion are there for all to see today- destruction of the Iraqi society, countless dead and displaced, loss of property and a near civil war with no end in sight to the misery visited upon the common man, woman and child.

But the intersting and worrying question for the world is how far a licence can be given to a purportedly democratic country and its leader (however poweful they are) to decide about the regime-change in other countries and manufacture reasons to invade it and spoil it. If this licence is granted to USA and exercised by it by choice and selection, is it not akin to turning a great Democracy to a form of Dictatorship.

In the great Hindu Epic 'Mahabharata' while delivering the 'Bhagavat Gita' Lord Krishna says 'whenever there is Adharma (oppression of good) in any Era, I will come to the world to destroy it and establish Dharma (Good) again'-Rough translation only. Is USA and its President whoever he/she is to be vested with this power to establish Good and Justice? Are they to act in the name of God to do so? It may be okay for a God to become a Man to do his deeds but is it okay for a Man to become God and take on these powers?

If Good is to become Evil to defeat Evil, is it a victory for Good or Evil?

Global Warming-Lots of hot air

The Stern report on Global Warming has started a much needed debate to discuss the effects of global warming and has pushed it to the front of the agenda in many forums.

I can't help but wonder about the double or even multiple standards adopted by the world leaders to the question of development and how it affects living standards and global warming. The developed world has enjoyed the fruits of development and innovation and has reached a stage of richness and prosperity by exploiting the resources of the earth and the world. They are now however talking about the ill-effects of development taking place in China, India, Brazil etc which are aspiring to improve their economies and raise the living standards of their people. But these efforts are being perceived as contributing more to the gloable warming. The environmentalists and naturalists are now worried about the consequences of continued growth of these countries and the effect it may have on depletion of resources and increase in pollution and warming due to more industrialisation. Though it is true, is it justified to ask these countries to go slow on their development so that the already developed world can continue to enjoy their prosperity.

The other question is if these countries put a brake on thier growth, what effect it will have on the economies of the developed world like USA, UK, Australia and the OECD nations which see these countries as the market for their goods and depend on them to increase thier exports.
Not to forget the Big Oil Companies which take their raw material from much of the developing world and whose final products contribute to the pollution and global warming to a great extent. Will they or their stake-holders be ready to accept a big fall in their income/profits for the sake of improving the atmosphere and lessening the harmful emissions.

This is a classic catch-22 situaton where the speeding train cannot be stopped without a break-up, but continuing to speed ahead may take the train to disaster.

The only solution may be managed slowing down of the world economy, which requires consent and co-operation by all the major players. A system of compensation for the developing and undeveloped nations from the already developed nations may be required for this managed slow-down to take place. This requires sacrifice by every one. How this will be agreed to and implemented and who will supervise the same? Will the United Nations grab the leadership on this critical issue?

Already USA is proving to be difficult to realise its role in bringing the world to the present desperate state, and is refusing to contribute in any meaningful way. Who is strong enough to bring USA to the realisation that it has a big responsibility in leading the world out of this crisis. Will it be its friends like UK, Australia or its critics like France, New Zealand and other OECD countries which are part of the developed world as of today? Or will it be the new giants like India, China and Brazil etc which themselves are dependent on continued growth in their export markets in the developed world.

This is a very complicated situation and just more and more talk will only create more hot air and hard feelings. The time has come to think of radical solutions like massive transfer of wealth and aid to feed and clothe and maintain the undeveloped nations like those in Africa. A mechanism will have to worked out to tax the developed nations and use the funds to slow-down and manage the economic growth in other countries.

Time is running out fast and the train is hurtling towards an unknown land and uncertain future. Who will grab the throttle to manage a safe ride and arrival for the passengers?