Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Some random thoughts

Obama and the Muslims.

I think President Obama has to first develop a consensus among Americans as to what should be the approach to the Muslims of the World. He cannot claim to speak for a majority of Americans or even a majority of his own Democratic party on this important issue. Whatever he says if it is not backed by his country-men and women would be just rhetoric and will risk the failure due to lack of action afterwards. President Obama seems to be on a mission to collect brownie points from various corners of the world, but his support among Americans is becoming shaky, because of his economic policies and flip-flops on a few issues like releasing the photos of Army abuse of prisoners. He is trying to do too many things and is losing focus and support. So he has to be careful about what he promises by way of actions on behalf of all Americans.

More so when Benjamin Netanyahu is not playing along with the American demands to give more concessions and stop/dismantle the settlements. Netanyahu is not even ready to look at the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue. This has made Obama’s task of wooing the Arabs more difficult. They will be looking up to him to solve the Palestinian issue or at the least to come out with a workable policy which he will have to sell to Israel.

Without building a consensus in USA, President Obama will only issue more sound-bites which may come back to bite him later.

Sri Lanka What now ?

The tragedy in Sri Lanka is not over yet and will not be over for a few more years. The Government has won the war, but not the minds of the Tamils. They have for now gathered the Tamils in refugee camps with no stated plans for their return and rehabilitation. The world had let the Government prosecute the war with no rules or mercy. There had been no great condemnation of the Army’s policy of not allowing any journalists or outsiders to report on the progress of the war and its effect on the innocents. Even now they are not sure as to how many Tamils died during the end period of the war. The US and other Western countries were pre-occupied with their economic troubles and India had its attention on Pakistan and election. It is a surprise that the Sri Lanakan Tamil issue did not play out in the recent election campaign in India , especially Tamilnadu. That must make the Tamils in Sri Lanka more despondent about their future.

Now that the war is over, there is an urgent need for an International initiative may be lead by India to make Sri Lanka accountable for the future of the Tamils there. The government must be made to come out with a timeline for resettling the refugees and return of their land and properties and help them in rehabilitation. Aid to Sri Lanka for this must be channeled by an International Group overseen by efficient administrators. Otherwise the refugee problem will fester and the Tamils may become the next Palestinians. It is not clear whether the seriousness of this has been realized by the world leaders and the UN yet.

General Motors – Who cares ?

I read recently that the folks of Detroit are angry that Americans elsewhere did not really care as to what happened to General Motors. An Icon of American industrial supremacy has fallen and is being dragged through unseemly forums to survive in a truncated form. I really do not understand the Bankruptcy move. Why did not the Federal Government simply take over the company and get concessions from the creditors, union and others to sell off assets ? The Bankruptcy and rebirth as a majority Government-owned new entity seems to be waste of resources and precious judicial time. May be Obama and his team had no idea as to how to effectively nationalize and run a troubled company. They should have taken lessons from India, which successfully averted a crisis in Satyam by immediately taking over the management and getting a new team in place which quickly found a willing buyer for the Company. The Indian stock market has absorbed this shock well and is coming back well.

May be the Detroit folks are right. No one cares about General Motors.

Free online news- How long will it last ?

We are seeing the death of newspapers and magazines which put all their wares for free on the net, banking only on the advertisement revenue. They thought they had a good business model going there. But the Economic Crisis has put paid to their future plans of delivering news and making money from the net. Now they have started talking about charging readers on online news like Itunes or some such thing. Will the net surfers bite ? I don’t think this is the right time for asking readers to pay for service which they have taken for granted. The economic crisis is putting many out of jobs and spending on inessentials is down. Is news very essential to the common man or woman ? I think we will see more of these bankruptcies and in the future Television news channels becoming more popular once again. CNN and Fox news and even Al Jazeera may cash in where NY Times and Washington Post lose readers and revenue.

Green shoots and Toxic Assets

Now we have a new phrase 'green shoots' to rival 'toxic assets'. What recovery exactly are we expecting ? Is it going back to the world economy as it was pre-2007, with US consuming, China exporting and Banks and Investment Bankers and Hedge Funds making money for themselves. I don't think that kind of recovery would do any good. The American auto industry is out and the infrastructure there needs trillions to repair and restore. The next recovery should focus on manufacturing, eradicating poverty, destroying arms, stopping warfare and improving health care for everyone. It should not be based on spending on consumer goods. How about a real estate boom in the third world giving everyone there an opportunity to have a shelter of their own ? This is the kind of recovery we should be working for.